Syracuse desperately needs an Atlantic Coast Conference win, but its next chance comes against what could easily be considered the conference’s best team.

No. 6 North Carolina (14-2, 3-0 ACC) visits the Carrier Dome for an 8 p.m. matchup against the Orange (10-6, 0-3) on Saturday. SU head coach Jim Boeheim will make his return after a nine-game suspension for the first of two meetings between these teams this season.

Here’s what you need to know about the Tar Heels heading into the matchup.

All-time series: 4-5 in North Carolina’s favor.

 Last time they played: The Tar Heels defeated Syracuse, 93-83, in the Dean E. Smith Center last January. That was the highest a team scored against the Orange all season, and also SU’s fourth-highest offensive output. Syracuse got 28 points on an inefficient 26 shots from Trevor Cooney, and Marcus Paige led a balanced UNC effort with 22 points, eight assists and four steals. 

North Carolina report: The Tar Heels have the second best offense in the country according to Kenpom.com’s adjusted offensive efficiency, and recently scored 106 points in a regulation win over unranked Florida State. UNC is paced by a trio of stars — Paige, Brice Johnson and Justin Jackson — as starting center Kennedy Meeks recovers from a bruised knee. ESPN’s Doris Burke said during the North Carolina-FSU telecast that Meeks could play against the Orange, but it seems unlikely that head coach Roy Williams would give him a normal load of minutes even if he does suit up. That hasn’t been a huge problem for the Tar Heels, who have strong reserve bigs in Isaiah Hicks and Joel James, who could team with Johnson to bully SU inside.

While UNC is a decent 3-point shooting team, only 19.9 percent of its total points come from beyond the arc, which ranks 341st out of 351 Division I teams, per Kenpom. Its offense, predicated on getting out in transition and dumping it inside in the half court, is led by Johnson, who scores 16.8 points per game, and organized by the veteran Paige. Johnson is coming off a 39-point, 23-rebound performance against the Seminoles. Paige’s 19.8 usage percentage is the fifth highest on the team, but he has the third best adjusted offensive rating in the country, scoring an adjusted 141.1 points per 100 possessions according to Kenpom. He also has the 11th lowest turnover rate in the country, and the Tar Heels haven’t scored fewer than 80 points since he returned from injury seven games into the season. North Carolina is a dynamic team that can beat opponents in a lot of ways, but it starts with Paige and Johnson before trickling down to Jackson and the rest of Williams’ nine-man rotation.

How Syracuse upsets North Carolina: Three words: Pack. The. Paint. It’s not that the Tar Heels can’t make 3s, it’s just that its offense is way more effective on the inside. If the Orange does keep the zone compact and forces UNC to shoot over the top of it, there’s a good chance that Paige (44.4 percent from deep), Nate Britt (40.5), Theo Pinson (41.2) and Joel Berry (36.2) make it a very long afternoon in the Carrier Dome. But if SU extends to shooters like it normally does, it will be an even longer afternoon when Johnson, Hicks, maybe Meeks and the Tar Heels’ slashers are pounding the zone inside. According to Kenpom, UNC has the 18th best 2-point shooting percentage in the country (55.7), 11th best offensive rebounding percentage (39) and 27th best team free-throw percentage (74.7). Packing the paint could work to taking away North Carolina’s high-percentage scoring opportunities, and Syracuse also has to forget about offensive rebounding and get back on defense to slow down the Tar Heels’ relentless fast break. On the other end, SU simply has to be making its 3s to stay in it. UNC ranks 322nd in the country in 3-point defense, according to Kenpom, and the Seminoles scored 90 points on Monday by shooting 10-of-20 from deep and attacking a stretched out man-to-man defense. If the Orange has any shot at keeping up with the Tar Heels’ offense, it’ll be from deep. 

Numbers to know: North Carolina’s average possession length of 14.6 seconds is the 11th lowest in the country, according to Kenpom. While Syracuse likes to run, the Tar Heels like to sprint. And even though the Orange is effective in transition, it may be time to dial back its fast break to try and prevent UNC from playing at its preferred break-neck pace. North Carolina is an offensive juggernaut, and its success in transition is a big reason why.

Player to watch: Even if Meeks plays, Hicks will likely be Johnson’s primary running mate in the frontcourt. James started against Florida State but Hicks played 12 efficient minutes before picking up his fourth foul. On the season, Hicks is averaging 9.6 points and four rebounds per game, and will hurt the Orange on the offensive glass if it focuses too much on Johnson.

Published on January 7, 2016 at 5:42 pm