With his eyes on 2020 and not on the money, New York state Gov. Andrew Cuomo has wagered the state’s economic future on a chance for the presidency.

In January, Cuomo proposed an overhaul of the state’s tax code, which called for the abolishment of a state income tax, instead favoring a wage tax. It’s a popular idea in progressive circles, with other high-tax states considering similar measures. But this replacement would be far more harmful to small businesses than larger ones, forcing entrepreneurs to look elsewhere to build their companies.

And for Democrats like Cuomo grappling with a potential presidential bid, it’s more important now than ever to unveil progressive policies.

“For any Democrat who wants to be president, 2020 is going to be really appealing,” said Chris Faricy, a professor of political science at Syracuse University who studies the ways tax policy interacts with politics.

And it’s easy to see why Democrats are so eager, with President Donald Trump being one of the least popular presidents in modern American history. It will be hard to attract attention in a crowded primary field, and Cuomo appears ready to sacrifice the Empire State’s financial viability on the altar of personal ambition.

Faricy said there could be an exodus of the wealthy from New York due to the increased tax burden on the upper class due to the GOP’s SALT deduction cap.

One argument is that many of New York’s top earners work in and around Wall Street, and few firms have shown any desire to leave. But while the GOP tax bill may have eliminated their state tax deduction, it also sent the markets soaring. This seems to imply that New York’s financial losses may not be large enough to make a dent.

Cuomo has also found a way to anger larger firms by threatening to close the carried interest loophole, enforcing a tax hike on those whose paycheck comes from investing. While it’s a populist move that could help attract Trump’s working-class base, it’s also destined to infuriate New York’s biggest creditors.

Cuomo’s proposals have popular appeal, especially to Democratic primary voters as he heads into his November re-election. In deep-blue New York, he faces no real threat from Republicans, but the famously moderate governor needs to prove his progressive chops to stave off primary challenges from the left.

But it’s clear that this year’s gubernatorial race isn’t the only Democratic primary on his mind.

“When you’re in a position like Cuomo, you have to both think about the near term, which is warding off challengers — mainly, in a state like New York, from the left — but also not putting yourself so far out of the mainstream that you couldn’t win a national Democratic party nomination,” Faricy said. “(Cuomo has to) stave off challenges from the left, but not go too far so it makes him persona non grata to people in Iowa or Ohio.”

To me, it’s clear that these actions are tailored to a potential presidential run. Other recent moves by the governor — including a joint effort with New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy to sue the federal government over the tax bill — are clear bids to enter the conversation prefacing 2020.

But Cuomo’s current proposals threaten to punish New York businesses large and small alike and make the Empire State an utterly toxic place to live and work. If he can’t leave New York state better than he found it, how can we trust him to lead the whole country?

Cuomo is right that New York needs tax relief, and I hope he will reconsider and take positive action rather than popular action.

James Pezzullo is a sophomore public relations major. His column appears biweekly. He can be reached at jpezzull@syr.edu and followed on Twitter @JamesPezzullo.

Published on February 7, 2018 at 10:29 pm