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When Syracuse entered its matchup versus Clemson with an undefeated record, the stats backed up its success. Syracuse was the only Football Bowl Subdivision squad to rank top seven in scoring offense and scoring defense entering Week 5.

Statistically, the Orange were among the most complete teams in the FBS. And though SU did reinforce some of its early-season positives in Saturday’s 31-14 loss to Clemson, the two-loss Tigers exposed what seemed to be strengths for Syracuse.

The Orange now have two-straight road dates with ranked Atlantic Coast Conference opponents, No. 14 UNC and No. 5 Florida State. To compete in those games, and in the conference, SU needs to use its loss to Clemson as a base to build off of.

Sometimes, the stats do lie, especially when the competition doesn’t reflect what’s to come. Here are some of SU’s most significant numbers and whether the performance versus Clemson supported or debunked their validity:

Top red zone defense: Debunked

3rd red zone defense in the nation (.538), was 1st prior to Saturday (.444)

Clemson went 3-for-4 on red-zone drives, punching in two touchdowns in the first half to squash the narrative around Syracuse’s top red-zone defense. Prior opponents only had nine trips to the red zone and had questionable quarterback play, making the stat somewhat misleading.

That said, the offense didn’t help. Clemson’s second red-zone drive began at the three-yard line. The Orange’s red-zone coverage was lacking and short-distance runs were often converted by pushing the pile with superior strength.

Sophomore receiver Troy Stellato, who started in place of the injured Antonio Williams, ran free across the end zone during a broken 3rd-and-7 play that put the Tigers up 7-0 early. The Orange didn’t set the edge on the pass rush, letting quarterback Cade Klubnik out of the pocket, untouched, with his eyes downfield.

In the next two games, against mobile quarterbacks Drake Maye (UNC) and Jordan Travis (FSU), Syracuse will be outmatched at the line of scrimmage again. In order to contain those offenses, it can’t allow extended time in the pocket or the opportunity for quarterbacks to escape.

Elite against the run: Supported

18th-highest run defense grade in the country (PFF); 10th in yards per rush against (2.7)

Syracuse held strong at the line of scrimmage using a variety of stunts and a heavy reliance on the blitz. Before Phil Mafah’s back-breaking touchdown, the longest rush Syracuse had allowed was a 23-yard jet sweep.

Running back Will Shipley, who exploded for 172 yards against the Orange last season, was held to 61 yards and 3.4 yards per carry. SU only missed five tackles – it forced 11 on offense – and earned 18 defensive stops, according to Pro Football Focus.

Syracuse’s ball carriers created more after the catch than Clemson’s. LeQuint Allen Jr. was also the more efficient back, a testament to defensive coordinator Rocky Long and his defense. No matter who Syracuse plays, Long’s inscrutable schemes and in-game adjustments will be tough to figure out, and its run defense should remain elite because of it.

First-class coverage: Undecided

4th-highest coverage grade in the nation (PFF)

Klubnik beat SU’s secondary at every level. The Clemson quarterback completed passes to every area of the field with at least a 50% completion rate.

The secondary gave up big plays throughout, including a 47-yard touchdown to Beaux Collins that left Jeremiah Wilson on his knees after biting on a double move.

Going into Saturday, Syracuse ranked 12th in the nation in defensive passing efficiency (102.12). After Klubnik's surgical performance, the Orange dropped 11 spots to No. 23, losing eight points in defensive passing efficiency.

This was a revealing game for a usually disciplined secondary, but it’s not panic-worthy considering their experience, size, physicality and coaching. The Orange are a solid coverage team that was put in compromised positions last weekend. Klubnik was rarely forced out of the pocket by the Syracuse pass rush, and when he was, it was largely due to tight coverage, not pressure.

Big plays hurt. There’s no way around it. But, Collins walking into the end zone and Stellato breaking free across the goal line are both avoidable plays. Now that SU has seen the offense that awaits against ACC juggernauts, Long will ensure this unit matches their initial numbers the rest of the way.

Proficient passing: Debunked

22nd passing offense in the nation dropped to 40th after Clemson (YPG)

Every aspect of the passing attack failed Syracuse on Saturday. The offensive line allowed 14 pressures on 38 dropbacks (37%), jamming Garrett Shrader’s scramble lanes and swarming the pocket repeatedly. On top of that, head coach Dino Babers said the younger Orange receivers “didn’t handle the stage.”

Donovan Brown, Umari Hatcher and Damien Alford accumulated five drops. Brown let a wide-open, downfield pass from tight end Dan Villari on a trick play hit off his hands.

SU’s receivers were outmatched from the jump, fumbling the opportunities they got. Babers acknowledged the poor separation from his wideouts, but hinted the passing attack won’t change. On Tuesday, Shrader said he needs to throw the ball better vertically.

Most ACC secondaries will present similar physical challenges on vertical routes. Separation needs to improve because, if history serves, the offensive line won’t.

Arlo Stone | Digital Design Director

3rd-down success: Supported

10th in the nation in 3rd down conversion rate (.514)

The Orange went 9-of-17 (53%) on 3rd downs last weekend, which improved their 3rd-down conversion rate. In 3rd-and-long scenarios, Shrader gave his receivers chances to make plays with the Clemson pass rush breathing down his neck. Shrader and Allen Jr. have combined for 25 runs of 10+ yards throughout the season, which both rank top 40 in the country, so explosive runs are also a threat in long-distance downs.

In short-yardage scenarios, Syracuse showcased more iterations of its jumbo set. It’s been an efficient way of moving the chains and freezing the defense this season. Whether there are receivers outside or not, the extra linemen, fullback and a shallower setup for Allen Jr. keep the defense guessing. The Orange have had success in the set, which continued against Clemson.

Shrader and Allen Jr. both forced three missed tackles against a physical Clemson front, establishing their consistency across the competition. Both have 17+ forced missed tackles this season, and Shrader ranks 10th in the country with 27. Despite totaling just 100 rushing yards on Saturday, the Orange found ways to convert physical 3rd downs, regardless of distance.

Undisciplined penalties: Supported (and furthered)

8th most average penalty yards in the nation (78.8)

Syracuse’s lack of discipline was exposed further on Saturday. Having already struggled with penalties throughout the first four weeks, the Orange committed nine totaling 92 yards against Clemson. The Tigers picked up four first downs via SU penalties.

Penalties have plagued Syracuse throughout the past few seasons. Last year, the Orange had 15 more than any other ACC squad (111).

Any time SU has had their backs against the wall over the past three seasons, penalties have helped put them there. Of all the stats on this list, penalties are the only thing Syracuse has control over. To compete going forward, the Orange can’t give free yards away and beat themselves. That starts with keeping flags off the field.

Published on October 3, 2023 at 11:53 pm

Contact Wyatt: wbmiller@syr.edu