Syracuse (12-7, 5-3 Atlantic Coast Conference) hosts Pittsburgh (13-6, 4-4) Saturday afternoon in the Carrier Dome. The Orange added a fourth-straight win when they topped Notre Dame on the road Wednesday night. Meanwhile, the Panthers followed up a win over North Carolina with a 74-72 against Boston College.

Here’s what to know about Pittsburgh ahead of the matchup.

All-time series: Syracuse leads, 71-45

Last time they played: The Orange won all three matchups against Pitt a year ago, winning the last meeting on Mar. 13, 73-59, in the first round of the ACC tournament.

It marked SU’s first ACC tournament victory of the year, led by a then career-high 20 points from Buddy Boeheim. He hit a trio of threes and added four assists and six rebounds. Elijah Hughes and Frank Howard added 18 points apiece while Jared Wilson-Frame led the Panthers with 24 points. The Orange trailed into the second half and then an 8-0 run by Buddy gave them a lead they wouldn’t relinquish.

The Pittsburgh report: The Panthers are in the second year of its rebuild under head coach Jeff Capel III. The former Duke assistant coach signed a two-year extension in early January and is expected to lead Pitt until the 2026-27 season.

Like Syracuse, Pitt has played in several close games this season. After a season-opening win against now-ranked Florida State, Pitt settled at 2-2. Since a near-perfect nonconference slate, Pittsburgh has lost three ACC games by no more than eight points. On Jan. 14, the Panthers forced overtime against now No. 6 Louisville before losing by five. There’s a lack of a steady lead guard on the Pitt roster, as it averages more turnovers per game (12.4) than assists (12.2).

The result is a slow-paced offense ranked 295th in possession length in the country per KenPom. They shoot 29.8% from 3 and 46.6% from two-point range, both in the bottom third of Division I. Offensively, Pitt features a wide range of scorers led by Trey McGowens (13.3 points per game) and Xavier Johnson (12.2 ppg). Defensively, Pittsburgh ranks in the top half of the conference in adjusted defensive efficiency per KenPom.

In the Panthers last five games, they’ve mainly featured a lineup of Johnson, McGowens, guard Ryan Murphy, forwards Justin Champagnie and Eric Hamilton. Their tallest player, 6-foot-10 center Terrell Brown, is a spot-starter who’s fourth in the ACC in blocks per game (1.9).

How Syracuse beats the Panthers: Syracuse’s improved zone is limiting shooters, which should help quell efforts from McGowens, Murphy and Johnson — each of whom post better than a 31% 3-point clip. The Panthers also don’t have a John Mooney-type forward who can operate in the high-post. And when passing is needed to break down the zone in the half court, Pitt’s lacked an elite playmaker all year.

On the other end, SU should have no problems getting inside. Pitt deploys a smaller lineup and is averaging fewer rebounds per game than its opponents. Pittsburgh also allows 32.9% of opponent’s 3s to fall, 171st in the country. Look for Syracuse to run the pick-and-roll and create space either for Hughes and Buddy or Marek Dolezaj inside.

Stat to know: 12.0 — Pitt’s steal percentage, which ranks 24th in D-I per KenPom and can spark some transition offense if SU mishandles the ball.

KenPom odds: Syracuse has a 68% chance to win the game, with a projected final score of 69-63.

Player to watch: Xavier Johnson, No. 1, Guard

Johnson is the closest thing Pitt has to a playmaker. He leads the team in assists (89), while shooting 38% from 3. He’s also shown a propensity to get to the free throw line. Like Boston College did, Pitt may put the 6-foot-3 Johnson in the high-post to break down the Orange zone. He’ll also be key in capitalizing on any fastbreak chances.

Published on January 22, 2020 at 11:41 pm

Contact Nick: nialvare@syr.edu | @nick_a_alvarez